In the countries of the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East during the current century
These regions will become the world's largest in terms of emitting greenhouse gases, and may even surpass the European Union in that.
The ceiling of environmental experts' expectations regarding climate changes and the rise in average temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East has risen; After the predictions indicated a relatively increasing warming from the global average, the talk today is about a warming of about 5 degrees Celsius and more during the current century.
The future under climate change
Although the Middle East and the rest of the Arab countries bordering the Mediterranean have known very extreme climatic phenomena for several years, their future will get worse, experts say, and it will seem to be on the brink of an imp because the climatic fluctuations that may occur will be unprecedented.
The German Max Planck Institute for Chemistry supervised a prestigious study with an international scientific research team, and foreseen the future of the region in light of the current climate changes, in anticipation of its presentation at the upcoming 27th Global Climate Summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, next November.
The study included 16 countries from the region, namely: Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Syria and Turkey.
Experts from several research centers and international universities participated in this study, such as the Climate and Atmospheric Research Center of the Cyprus Institute, the Center of Excellence for Research in Climate Change at King Abdulaziz University in Saudi Arabia, the Research Institute for Environment and Sustainable Development in Greece, and the Research Institute for Climate and Earth Systems in Finland, as well as About the German Max Planck Institute for Chemical Sciences.
According to the press release issued on 6 September by the Max Planck Institute, the inclusion of serious and profound global climate policies may contribute to mitigating the negative effects of extreme weather events.
A major source of greenhouse gases
According to the study published by the "Reviews of Geophysics" on June 22, 2022, this region will become one of the world's largest regions emitting greenhouse gases, and may exceed the European Union in that.
Among the extreme weather phenomena that will intensify in the future are long droughts, intense heat waves, sandstorms, forest fires, and sudden, devastating and almost unpredictable torrential rains.
"If the situation continues and the countries of the world do not take any quick measures to contain the climate crisis, the climate curve is going to get worse, and we expect the area of arid and dry lands to expand," said lead researcher George Zetis of the Cyprus Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Research Center in the press release. It is advancing towards the north, which has fertile lands and a less hot climate.
Zetis added that "the mountainous regions, in turn, will witness a significant decrease in the rate of snowfall, in addition to a rise in sea level at a rate equal to the global average. All economic sectors will be affected by this, and this will also have repercussions on the social side."
Incurable health problems
The researchers in the study also expected that climatic changes would cause major health problems for the residents of the region. "The people of the region will face major health problems that threaten their existence, especially among the disadvantaged classes, children and elderly people," said Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute, in the press release.
Commenting on the health aspect of the study, Iraqi Dr. Wael Al-Dulaimi, a specialist in environment and climate changes at the University of California San Diego, said - in a statement to Al Jazeera Net over the phone - that "the study is very accurate and correct to the fullest extent in terms of its expectations, because the region is among the areas that will be affected by changes." We expect the residents of the region to face major health problems such as heart and respiratory diseases, and many diseases spread by insects and mosquitoes such as malaria, which will extend to new areas.”
Al-Dulaimi added, "What can be observed about the region is that it lacks detailed studies of how to prepare for such diseases, so we launched at the University of California San Diego the project "Climate Changes and Health in the Middle East and North Africa" in cooperation with the University of Science and Technology in Jordan and the Mohammed VI University of Science Health in Morocco, and the University of Balamand in Lebanon, and its goal is to train experts in the field and carry out scientific studies to understand the danger of climate warming on the health of the population of the region.
He explained that the project is funded by the US National Institute of Health, and will also include the participation of experts from Harvard and Berkeley Universities, in addition to the Regional Center of the World Health Organization, headquartered in Amman.
He continued, "The project was launched in July 2022 and will extend to 2027, and we have actually started work by setting up a training workshop for project frameworks from Morocco, Lebanon and Jordan, and we organized a conference on climate change and health in the Middle East with the participation of Arab health ministers."
A study was also started in Jordan to find out the effect of high temperatures on the fetus and the complications of childbirth for a group of women in very hot agricultural areas.
Tags:
BIODATA