Can China be the world's leading force in the near future?

The issue of world power is one of the most frequently discussed topics in human history, and in the 17th century some political analysts believed that "Spain would become a world power from the next century onwards." By the 19th century, some analysts had said, "The British Empire will be the lord of the world at least in the next century." In the 1950s, at least half of the world's population believed that the Soviet Union would occupy such a position in the future. But later history has proved that not all of these judgments are true. 

As China becomes the world's largest "manufacturing plant" in the 21st century, some people are beginning to emphasize that "China will soon be the world's largest economy beyond the United States." But some economists and politicians alike have been vocal in their opposition to the recent ruling. The issue's end has the recaptured Doomsday in the control of the ABC business commentator Ian Verrender. 

According to the author, some data and reports suggest that China will become the world's largest economy by 2030. Because China’s current GDP is growing at more than five percent a year, by 2050, that number will reach the world’s only level. But the author emphasizes that China is skeptical of such rapid growth. Especially as the Ukraine war widens the gap between the West and the East, the various challenges facing China will soon thwart this “sweet dream”.

Speaking on the issue, Matthew Kroenig, a professor at George Town University and director of the Center for Strategic and Security Affairs at the Atlantic Council, emphasized that he did not take the issue lightly. In his view, relations between China and the United States have already been severed, and the current global-scale polarization has pushed the former US-China "friendship" to the brink of extinction. Under such circumstances, it is unlikely that the U.S. government will reconcile with China for its needs to deal with Russia, and that China will take advantage of this to become stronger. 

"It simply came to our notice then. "I think the US-China relationship is more likely to be confronted than it is now. This, I think, will be the case for at least the next generation or two. So I don't think the relationship between the two sides will return to the field of cooperation in the near future. Indeed, this could happen if China changes, that is, if its actions are corrected, especially if the international economic deception is stopped, the massacre of the Uyghurs is stopped, and the military threat to its neighbors is stopped. But now it is in place of the unlikely. So I think the United States and China are now in a new Cold War. As for the situation in Ukraine, the answer is simple: the United States and its allies need a new strategy to counter the Russian and Chinese threats. For the United States, there is no way to be friends with one another in view of the need to deal with one another. Now both of them are a threat to us. So we have to deal with both of them equally. As of 2010, no one has yet thought that China will be a world leader by 2020. This is still the case. The United States accounts for 23 percent of GDP. China, meanwhile, is up 16 percent. Again, China is now slowing down in this regard. Xi Jinping has distorted China's economic structure to decentralize power. It is this factor that is slowing down China's economic development. 

According to Professor Massive, the historic changes in China's family structure and population structure, especially its decades-long family planning policy, have shattered the future of the Chinese labor force. This has greatly reduced the age limit for the Chinese labor force. In particular, by 2050, China's working-age population will fall to 220 million, which is one-fifth of the current level. By that time, in China, people over the age of 65 make up a quarter of the total population. 

"It simply came to our notice then. And again, these would mean that you have to spend for these processes. As a result, they have been forced to adopt a family planning policy. Now he regrets it. What does this mean, that China is now "much older" than it was before it became rich? With so many seniors retiring, the lack of manpower to take care of them is becoming more and more evident. "It simply came to our notice then. 

In his speeches on China's rise, Xi Jinping repeatedly said, "The East is rising and the West is sinking." But the war in Ukraine has further strengthened cooperation between the United States and its allies. China and its "poor" allies, according to Professor Massive, are far behind.  

"It simply came to our notice then. I think Russia and China have a long way to go if the United States falls on one side and we replace it. But that is not the case with reality. The United States has been accounting for 20-25 percent of global GDP since 1960. We still have 23 percent of that. That fact must be taken into account. " China, on the other hand, did not outperform 16-17 percent. So it would not be wrong to say that China did not come close to us in this regard. If we cooperate closely with our democratic allies, just as we did in the current Ukraine war, the United States and its allies will continue to be the main force in determining the world order for at least the next twenty to thirty years. » 

Professor Massive believes that the growing tension between the Western world and China over the virtual situation facing the Chinese Communist Party after Xi Jinping and the massacre of the Uyghurs is an important factor in determining whether China will be a leading force in world order in the future. 

“There are a number of challenges here. The biggest thing about this is what happens after Xi Jinping. The biggest issue, especially if Xi Jinping dies or abdicates. This is because of the fact that the transfer of power to the next generation of leaders has always been one of the biggest problems for authoritarian regimes. As you know, in our democracy-based system, power is transferred through legal means. But in China, post-Deng Xiaoping's ten-year tenure of leaders has become a system. But the order that came to Xi Jinping was disrupted. So if Xi Jinping suddenly dies overnight, no one knows what will happen next. Maybe one of his judges will seize power, maybe the power struggle will escalate, or China will once again be plagued by civil war and the Communist Party will perish. In short, the challenges facing the future domination of the Chinese Communist Party are also on the rise. This (massacre issue) is one of the main concerns of the United States and the governments of democracies, which are targeting human rights and the rule of law. What is happening to the Uyghurs in Xinjiang is really a tragedy. So the United States and its allies have taken the initiative to impose sanctions on Chinese officials responsible for the massacre. It also announced a series of restrictions on trade in forced labor and cotton products. But in my opinion, the fundamental issue here is that in essence this is not a struggle between two ideologies, but a struggle between two great powers. In other words, a democrat should speak out against a country that does not know what human rights are. So I think the United States will definitely win this race. " 

It is alleged that the ambassador provided the information to Hussein. That is why there is a lot of talk about whether China will be a world leader in the near future.