The specter of war threatens Bosnian Muslims Why does Russia support separatist Serbs?

In light of recent developments and the Bosnian Serbs taking the first steps in separatist endeavors, Russia's indirectly supportive role is re-emerging, so what does Serbia represent to Russia strategically?

The specter of war returns to threaten the Muslims of Bosnia again after nearly thirty years of massacres committed by the Serbs against them, which left about 200,000 dead, according to United Nations estimates, and were interspersed with rape and violence, the bloody effects of which still remain until today.

While the previous Russian military support for Serbia during the war was not hidden, its evidence seems more clear this time, amid the recent developments, which analysts described as a declaration of secession for the Serbs.

The Serbian leader, Milorad Dodik, implemented the first steps of his separatist threats, through the approval of the Republika Srpska parliament, which represents Bosnian Serbs, to withdraw its employees from the three most important federal institutions, namely the army, the judiciary and taxes, and if the National Assembly approved the decision, it will enter into force.

Since the end of the war in 1995, this Balkan country has been divided into two groups: the Bosnian-Croat Federation on the one hand, and the "Serbian" Republika Srpska on the other, both of which are semi-autonomous, while they are united by a weak central state represented by a three-party collective presidency.

Serbia is the battlefield of the Russian-Western conflict

During his official visit to Serbia in 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “We have repeatedly said that we view NATO expansion as a relic of the Cold War era, an unenlightened and destructive military and political strategy that leads to drawing new dividing lines within the European continent, undermines confidence and increases confidence. of the level of tension in Europe,” according to his interview with the Serbian newspaper, “Vecerny Novosti”.

This statement reflects the nature of the conflict in the Western Balkans, between Russia on the one hand, and the Western powers represented in NATO and the European Union on the other.

Putin has pursued a foreign policy of trying to use its old influence to regain its place as a global powerhouse, and this became clear when the Russian president annexed Crimea and declared it "forever part of Russia", since 2014.

In the light of that struggle to restore the old position, Serbia, a historical ally, is considered one of the most important Russian cards in the Western Balkans.

The two sides do not hide the specificity of the "Slavic Orthodox" relationship that unites them, which is reflected in many situations such as Moscow's support for Belgrade on the issue of Kosovo, whose independence the Serbs did not agree to, or Serbia's refusal to impose Western sanctions on Russia.

In October / last October, confirmed the interior minister of Serbia Alexander Fulin on two fundamental points for Russia, when he said: "Serbia will never support sanctions against Russia or hysteria hostile to Russia, and will not become a member of NATO," he continued , stressing "showed history that all A phobia towards Russia is also a phobia towards Serbia.”

At a time when NATO seeks to guarantee Serbia's loyalty by trying to extend its military influence over it, the Serbian leadership is keen to remind it of historical positions that prevent this. In March, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic confirmed that his country "will never forget the NATO aggression in 1999." Referring to the military operation, which NATO declared its goal to "prevent the extermination of the Albanian population in the territory of Kosovo," while Serbia considered it "an aggression to extract part of its territory."

Serbian honor militia and hidden Russian support

While Russia does not declare its support for the secession of Serbia, it supports its separatist efforts in twisted ways that avoid direct confrontation with the West.

Commented Russia 's ambassador to the European Union Vladimir Chezov, following the parliament decisions of the Serbian final, saying: "I think that Bosnia needs to get rid of this supervision (European) choking once and for all", stressing the need to end the function of the High Representative , who was appointed since 1995 to oversee On implementing the Dayton Peace Agreement that ended the war.

Last July, former High Representative Valentin Inzko passed legal amendments banning denial of the genocide and the Srebrenica massacre of Bosnian Muslims, and punishing those who deny it with up to five years in prison.

This angered the separatist leader Dodik, who rejected the law, saying: "Republika Srpska rejects the new law, and the so-called genocide did not happen, and the Serbs should not accept that either," in what observers considered the last straw that precipitated the separatist efforts.

Russia's covert support for Serbia's secession is not limited to the political aspect. In 2018, an investigation by the Guardian newspaper, citing Bosnian media, revealed that Russia had trained mercenaries that it attracted from the criminal world in Serbia to support the separatists.

These militias, which are called "Serbian Honor", and were trained in a "humanitarian center" with Russian funding, organized a public military parade in the great city of Banja Luka in Bosnia, while a secret document revealed that the assistants of the Serbian leader Dodik discussed the goals of that militia, and it included an intervention Possibly if the opposition sought to impede the authorities from separatist decisions.

In addition to the common political and military objectives between Russia and Serbia, there are other economic factors that make this support more urgent, as Russia is the main supplier of oil and gas in the region, and the Balkan countries depend mainly on it, and Russian private and state-owned energy companies enjoy huge stakes in the energy sectors within many Balkan countries.

All of these reasons push Russia to fight desperately in order to prevent Western influence from extending in that region, and to ensure that it does not conflict with its influence, which it wants to expand, and it seems that the secession of its strategic ally, Serbia, if implemented, is the best way for that.