From Syria and Iraq to the Maghreb Will the terrorist organization ISIS be resurrected?

After a severe fading that lasted for several years, the terrorist organization ISIS returned strongly to the fore in 2022, by trying to carry out operations in Syria, Iraq, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya. This raises many questions and speculations about the simultaneous timing of this movement.

From Syria and Iraq, to ​​Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, the terrorist organization ISIS returned strongly to the fore in 2022, by trying to carry out operations in those countries, after a severe fading that amounted to absence that lasted a few years.

The terrorist organization's attempt to return with force raised many questions and speculations about the simultaneous timing of this movement, and the neighboring countries it targeted.

And if many observers agreed that the measures of time and place are intended by the organization or by forces behind it to try to resurrect it, others disagreed about the possibility of returning and restoring what happened in 2014, when ISIS took control of large areas in countries such as Syria and Iraq, and it was implemented after Over the years, major operations have taken place in a number of countries in the region.

Al-Hasakah prison attack

And on Thursday, January 20, 2022, a strong warning bell about the attempt to make a strong return to ISIS, when the organization’s members attacked Al-Sina’a Prison in Al-Hasakah Governorate, northeastern Syria, in an operation during which they detonated a car bomb and were able to enter the prison, which led to the escape of dozens of ISIS members detained there. .

The day after the Hasakah prison operation, a group of terrorist Daesh launched an armed attack on the headquarters of the Iraqi army in Diyala (east), which resulted in the killing of an army lieutenant and 10 soldiers.

As a result, Iraq tightened its control over its borders with Syria, and intensified its non-stop operations in recent years and since the defeat of the organization in the country in 2017, during which it tracks the remnants of ISIS, which faced this intensification with attempts by it to carry out operations against Iraqi forces on the one hand, and the advisors of the International Coalition from On the other hand, during the last days of last month.

Simultaneous operations in the Maghreb

Barely a few days passed since its strong operations in the Arab Mashreq, but the organization began trying to launch similar targets in most of the Maghreb countries, specifically in Tunisia, Libya and Algeria.

In Libya, on January 26, an unknown number of ISIS attacked a security patrol, and killed 3 of its members, near Jabal Asida, west of the town of Qatroun, in the far southwest, not far from the border with Algeria.

After 24 hours of clashes in Libya, the Algerian Ministry of Defense announced the killing of two soldiers and the elimination of two terrorists, in a clash with a "terrorist group" (whose identity has not been specified) in the state of Ain Qezzam, bordering Niger.

As for Tunisia, which lies far from the Sahel region in the south, its Ministry of Interior announced on January 28 that it had thwarted a terrorist attack that was to target tourist areas.

PYD/YPG complicity

The Iraqi analyst specializing in security affairs, Safaa Al-Asam, sees "an increase in the strength of ISIS during the last period in Arab countries such as Iraq, Syria and even Libya."

He added that "the financial financing of ISIS increased significantly last year, which led to the reorganization of its ranks in those countries, especially in Iraq, which is carrying out continuous operations in some provinces to pursue the remnants of the organization."

Regarding the escape of ISIS elements from the Syrian prison of Al-Hasakah, Al-Asam indicated that there was complicity by the terrorist PYD/YPG forces, noting that "Iraq will be most affected by the escape of terrorist elements."

He concluded his speech by saying that "the talk of the American forces about the exit from Iraq led to an increase in ISIS activity in the region."

For his part, the Iraqi security researcher Saadoun Al-Saadi ruled out the return of the organization in Iraq and Syria as it was in the past, but "there are countries (he did not name) that work to confuse the security situation at times."

Al-Saadi added, "The terrorist organization has lost its strength, and has become formed from small groups that move in the mountains and desert and carry out operations at different times."

He believed that "the recent security breaches in Iraq, the escape of prisoners in Syria, and the emergence of new groups in Libya suggest the possibility of the emergence of a new scenario for the organization in the region."

He explained that "the visit of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Mustafa Al-Kazemi (former head of the intelligence service in Iraq), to the borders, and the increase in security operations in Iraq all indicate that there is an imminent danger that will occur in the region."

A new resurrection based on a radically different

From Morocco, Abd al-Hakim Abu al-Louz, an expert on jihadist movements and a professor of public law at Ibn Zohr University (governmental), considered that "the hypothesis that countries and great or regional powers are behind the organization's revival of its activity remains valid."

Abul-Lawz added that "this hypothesis, despite being logical, cannot be proven or denied at the present time, especially since such roles are entrusted to the intelligence services of countries, and it is not possible to determine its truth, whether it is denied or proven in the current situation."

He continued, "There are many international parties whose interest appears to be for the organization to resume its activity, which reinforces the claim that it is behind the recent activity of ISIS, but the lack of indications to confirm this leads to not going far in these assumptions."

The spokesman considered that those behind the organization's recent movements in several countries are local leaders of the organization, who are trying to revive the organization on a different radical basis.

He explained, "After the strikes inflicted on the organization in Iraq and Syria, there are leaders who are active from within several specific countries, and this is against the organization's ideology, which is based on not limiting jihad to a specific border area."

He continued, "I think that there are leaders fleeing to their countries of origin, in addition to others that emerged from the organization's ordeal that motivated these attacks."

And he added, "The organization is now being formed around microscopic leaders who are active in certain countries and reproduce jihadist ideology at local levels, in a radical change in this ideology."

Abul-Lawz attributed the reason for these attacks to coincide in more than one country to the existence of nascent hybrid democracies, and these attacks come to kill them.

From Libya, the military and strategic expert, Adel Abdel Kafi, said that "the synchronization of ISIS operations in several countries, such as Syria, Iraq and Libya, aims to prove its existence and its ability to carry out operations to impose a strategy that remains and expands, such as its offensive operation to control Ghweran prison."

He added that "the organization also carried out an attack in Iraq on the al-Azeem area, amid their attempt to recruit more elements. ISIS also carried out an offensive operation in southern Libya, which revealed its ability to possess caches, weapons and armed vehicles."

According to Abdel Kafi, these operations mean that the organization is carrying out "combat operations with the renewal of funding sources, including elements, weapons and ammunition, and strikes at various sites after follow-up operations and identification of the type of target."

He continued, "These developments confirm that the organization announces its existence, and since it has a political agenda, it certainly makes some alliances with political forces in order to exploit its movements and presence."