If Russia invades Ukraine, will the world face a food and economic nightmare?

Observers warn that catastrophic food and economic effects will occur as a result of the suspension of grain and energy supplies from the Russian and Ukrainian lands, in addition to negative repercussions on global stock markets, repercussions that the world may not bear, in the event of a Russian-Ukrainian war.

Over the past weeks, the world has been apprehensive about an imminent Russian invasion of eastern Ukrainian lands, especially after Moscow mobilized in recent months more than 100,000 soldiers along the Ukrainian border and moved tanks and military equipment to the west of its lands.

On Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry published a video clip of the Sukhoi-35S fighters taking off from Russian military bases and landing at the airports of Belarus, a neighboring country also bordering Ukraine, as part of “exercises designed to test the reaction of the forces of an allied country.” In turn, Russian warships headed to "Barents Sea" for training to protect a major shipping lane in the Arctic Circle.

Observers warn of a dire humanitarian and security situation in the event of the invasion, while others speculate that catastrophic food and economic effects will occur as a result of the suspension of grain and energy supplies from Russian and Ukrainian lands, in addition to negative repercussions on global stock markets, which are repercussions that the world may not bear.

Food disaster

The Ukrainian lands, especially the eastern part of it, are one of the most fertile regions on Earth, so for centuries Ukraine has been called the "food basket of Europe". Kiev's fast-growing agricultural exports, such as grain, vegetable oils and a host of other products, are essential to feeding African and Asian people.

Ukraine exports maize, barley and wheat, the latter having the greatest impact on food security worldwide. In 2020, Kiev exported about 18 million tons of wheat out of a total harvest of 24 million tons, making it the world's fifth largest exporter of wheat.

Kiev's wheat crops reach different continents of the world, so that about half of the wheat consumed in Lebanon in 2020 is Ukrainian wheat, and this percentage came to 28% for Malaysia and Indonesia, and 14% for Egypt, according to data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ( FAO ).

For these reasons, experts fear that any military movement could mean sharp declines in wheat production and a sharp drop in Ukrainian wheat exports, as farmers flee the fighting, and infrastructure and agricultural equipment are destroyed by the war.

Energy crisis

Russia provides about 35% of natural gas imports in Europe, and the majority of those imports reach the old continent through pipelines that cross Belarus and Poland and from there to Germany, in addition to the Nord Stream 1 line, which directly connects to Germany and other European countries via Ukraine. .

According to statements by Western officials, part of the possible sanctions that the West intends to impose on Moscow if it invades Ukrainian territory, will include stopping the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. The aim is to strike "Russia's unilateral economy," as a US official put it to the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.

In this case, sanctions will become a double-edged sword, as the Russian economy needs oil and gas revenues at least as much as Europe needs Russian energy supplies. Reuters and Bloomberg quoted US officials as saying that the United States is working to secure energy supplies to Europe through Qatar as a quick alternative to Russian gas, and that this is the reason behind US President Joe Biden's meeting with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in Washington, DC. scheduled for Monday.

Depression

Several European and US banks are connected to the Russian market because they have Russian clients to whom they have lent about $65 billion, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This will put these banks under financial pressure due to a possible failure to collect their dues from Russian lenders in the event of the outbreak of war.

Economists expect that the Russian and Ukrainian economies will be seriously damaged in the event of a Russian invasion, as both are already suffering from contraction and recession, and the value of their currencies has depreciated globally as a result of the sanctions and successive geopolitical tensions.

It is expected that the sanctions that Washington may impose in the event of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which high-ranking US officials have talked about, will include a ban on the export of electronic products, precision equipment and software to Russia with the aim of striking vital Russian industrial sectors, which will negatively affect the Russian economy.