Threats of World War III Is Europe experiencing the same catastrophe?

In a continuation of the escalating debate between Poland and the European Union, Warsaw's prime minister has vowed to defend his country if Brussels starts a "third world war". While this speech brings to mind the question of the collapse of the Union as a way to the fragile peace between the countries of the old continent.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has threatened to defend his country if Brussels starts a "third world war". In reference to the dispute in his country and the European Union over the "principle of the rule of law" and the priority of its laws over the European Union. A conflict in which observers see it heralds a new disintegration that will include the European system, and a rift between the populist right-wing camp on the one hand and the liberal axis within it on the other.

On the other hand, the use of the term "third world war" is considered a precedent by a European official at the level of a leader of a member state. Which brings to mind the fragile peace between the countries of the Union, which have known throughout their history long conflicts between them, the last of which was a global war that claimed more than 60 million lives.

Punishment and threat of war

Quoting the Financial Times, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, "What will happen if the European Commission launches a third world war? If a third world war begins, we will defend our rights with any weapon at our disposal." Referring to the European Commission's warnings to impose sanctions on Warsaw.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier warned Poland that its defiance of the EU's rule of law called into question the very foundations of the 27-nation bloc, and could not go unpunished. Brussels has postponed its approval of a package of measures worth 36 billion euros to help the Polish economy recover from the pandemic, in response to the tension between it and the country, which has been going on for months.

Murwick added that Brussels must withdraw threats of legal or financial sanctions if it is to resolve the long-running dispute. The Polish Constitutional Court ruled, two weeks ago, that parts of EU law are incompatible with the Polish constitution, undermining the union's legal foundation and raising fears that Poland may eventually leave the union.

The return of the atmosphere of 1930

With the Polish Prime Minister's assurances that "there is no attempt for Poland's secession from the Union", there are fears of this happening, especially after the increase in sanctions on Eastern European countries; From imposing a fine of 500,000 euros for each day you continue to exploit the Toro coal mine (in the south of the country), to suspending its aid package and threatening other penalties.

Thus, it is a European reality in which observers see a warning of a disintegration in which the member states will catch up with their British counterparts. While it is reported that an opinion poll conducted in 2019 among citizens of European Union member states revealed a broad trend stating that the union could dissolve or disintegrate within a period ranging between 10 and 20 years.

Participants in the aforementioned survey expressed their concerns about issues such as the economy, inequality, and security threats, as they see the possibility of conflict between member states of the Union, and that the biggest loss they will suffer is the inability to work together against global powers such as China, Russia and the United States.

On the other hand, the tension between the Union and Poland responds to the concerns of those participants, as it comes in the midst of great polarization between Russia and the West around the Eastern European region, one of its phases was the political crises that shook those countries last year following their decision to adopt the Russian vaccine.

This is in addition to the popular discontent that will result from European sanctions on Poland, while analysts are likely to increase the rise of the far-right ruling in the country. They liken it to what Europe experienced in the thirties of the last century, where the sanctions on Germany are one of the main factors in the rise of the Nazi party there. On the other hand, the European Union presents itself as the guarantor of peace among the member states, and thus its collapse may cause the collapse of that peace with it.